House RegretsThe house you didn’t buy.

The house you didn’t buy

Pick the metro. Pick the year you almost bought. See what it became — with the mortgage you didn’t take, the rent you paid instead, and what the down payment would have done in the market.

410 US metro areas · FHFA all-transactions index, 1975→2026 Q1 · every computation on this site is checkable arithmetic.

The one that ran hardestMiami$300k in 2000 there$1.62MUS metros tracked410

Start with the famous ones

How it works

1 · The index

FHFA’s all-transactions House Price Index tracks repeat sales on the same homes, per metro, quarterly since 1975. Public data; every number recomputable.

2 · The mortgage you didn’t take

Leverage is the whole story in houses. We amortize a 30-year loan at the actual average rate from your entry year — Freddie Mac’s survey via FRED.

3 · The honest alternatives

The rent you paid instead, grown by the CPI rent index — and what the same down payment did in the S&P 500. Sometimes the house loses. We print that too.

Methodology

Metro house-price trajectories use the FHFA all-transactions House Price Index — quarterly, per metro area, reaching back to 1975 for the earliest markets.

A purchase in year Y is valued at that year’s average index level and scaled to the latest quarter. Mortgage math uses that year’s average 30-year fixed rate (Freddie Mac PMMS via FRED). The rent line grows a reference rent with the CPI rent index; the stock line uses S&P 500 total return.

Limits: an index describes a metro, not your street or your house; condition, remodels, taxes, insurance, maintenance and selling costs are not modeled. Full methodology →